Do The Celtics Lack The Clutch Gene?
As I sit here and dive into what the hell is going on with this team over the last 9 days, one thing keeps popping up. We all know the way the Celts have lost games over this 5 game stretch have been bizarre and almost inexplicable, but there's no denying there is one underlying trend that has followed the Celts basically the entire season which ultimately begs the question
Do the Celtics lack the clutch gene?
This seems crazy on the surface with players like Kemba and Jayson Tatum on the roster, but listen I am a slave to what my eyeballs and the numbers tell me. Because I have the time I decided to dive in and see just what the hell is going on with this team during the most important times of a game. The NBA defines "clutch" as being up or down by 5 points in the last 5 minutes of a game so that's where we'll put our baseline. Before we dive in, know that at 4-5 in games decided by 3 points or less the Celts are 4-5 which is the worst record of any of the top 4 seeds from either conference. Seeing as how the playoffs are most likely filled with tight games, that's not exactly something we can ignore and it's not something that just has been an issue these last 9 days.
I wanted to look at this season in two stretches. From the start of the year to the start of this 5 stretch and then how things differ from what we see at the moment. On the season this is how the Celts have performed in clutch situations
Ortg: 115.5 (7th)
Drtg: 110 (17th)
Net rating: 5.6 (9th)
When you think of clutch situations, you usually think of offense right? As a group for the better part of the season the Celts haven't been all that bad. But you look closer and there are some issues surrounding their most important players
Kemba Walker: 37.5/42.3%
Jayson Tatum: 55/45%
Gordon Hayward: 36/50%
Jaylen Brown: 45/33%
Marcus Smart: 35.7/25%
On this team, Kemba/Tatum/Smart average the most clutch time shots on this team. Outside of Tatum, the other two aren't all that great. Their secondary shooters in Hayward/Jaylen don't exactly blow your dick off either. Remember, these numbers do NOT include this recent stretch. I just wanted to see how things have looked like that included both good moments and bad over the course of the entire year leading up to these 9 days. So while their Ortg may look good at 7th, when you look closer as to how their best players are performing offensively in the biggest moments, it's a little bit of a different story. I think that's important.
Now let's look at this current stretch (2/27-3/9)
Ortg: 114.9 (14th)
Drtg: 124.4 (18th)
Net rating: -9.5 (20th)
Basically, a similar offense, a much worse defense and a pretty terrible net rating. That's the profile of a team that goes 1-4. Now let's look at how the most important players have fared over this timeframe
Kemba Walker: 25/50%
Jayson Tatum: 50/0%
Gordon Hayward: 25/0%
Jaylen Brown: 26/50%
Marcus Smart: 50/33%
A small sample sure, but it tells us the same story. The big guns are continuing to struggle offensively during these important stretches. But the reason things feel so much worse this time around over these 9 days is because the individual clutch defense has been a DISASTER, even more than normal
Legit defenders like Theis, Semi, Smart, Grant, Jaylen etc have all been a big time problem during these 9 days on the defensive end. As we've seen, having a good offense in these situations doesn't really mean much when you can't stop anybody. The fact they are getting killed by guards is an issue. I don't know what Brad can do if his starting center is struggling in clutch time defense and every other big he could put in will be just as terrible.
You want to know why this stretch feels like last season? Well if you look at how this team is defending this entire year in the clutch (112.3) it's basically the same shit as last year (114.8, 29th in the NBA). Their record in games decided by 3 points or less was 5-6. This year they are 4-5. Feels like those things are related. Even if you wanted to look outside of "clutch" situations and just focus on the fourth quarter as a whole, the Celts have a 109.7 Drtg in the fourth quarter this year which is 16th in the NBA. This current stretch it balloons to 116.9 which is 20th. They have the best fourth quarter offense in the NBA, but that has gone away from them as of late, with the 13th best fourth quarter offense during this stretch. So basically they are worse both offensively and defensively right now which makes sense given the fact they've blown 4 straight double digit leads. That's happening because their best players aren't coming through on either end of the floor when it matters most, especially defensively.
To me, this isn't a situation where nobody is willing to accept their role at the end of games. That isn't the issue here, there is a clear pecking order that everyone seems to have accepted. The issue is once this team decides to rely too much on isolation on one end and then doesn't defend on the other, well that's a problem. These are the trends that are a bit concerning come the postseason because you can't rely on your offense being as good once defenses tighten up. The Celts are going to have to show that they can figure out a way to defend in these high pressure situations, because when you look either at the full season or this recent bad stretch of play, that's the one constant which you could argue will ultimately be their potential downfall.
So much has been made recently about the bench, and I get it. But this team is going to live or die with how their best players perform in the biggest moments, not what the bench does. They have about a month or so to figure out how to fix this issue and maybe health is a part of it, but we can't exactly rely on that either.